Zeno Thinks: Expect The Unexpected

It’s that time of year. Tinsel. Wham / Mariah / East 17 on the radio. And endless agency trend predictions.

Many predictions for the year ahead can be a bit … predictable. Because they’re usually based on the same sources, have the same agenda, come to the same conclusions, and support the same sales pitches.

So we wanted to try to look beyond the obvious. Not just the big trends you’ll see elsewhere, but the nuance of how – we think – they’ll really play out, what’s fuelling them, and what actions you can take as a result. Based on a year of paying attention to what’s happening around us, poking about and asking why.

The full report is here, but here are our five pithy predictions for what we believe will shape society, communications and the media in 2024 and beyond.

 

1. Climate crisis leads to climate fatalism.

Despite this week’s historic agreement, the climate crisis is going nowhere. Things will get worse before they can possibly begin to get better. So we’re going to fear our summers and focus on mitigation – some of which, like cheap, energy-hungry air conditioning, will only exacerbate the problem. A sense of fatalism will take hold.

Comms leaders therefore need to show leadership: it’s not enough to say something must be done; we need to talk about what that should be, when it needs to happen – and then do it. We need the courage to say the unsayable to lay the ground for the doing the impossible, and kick off a conversation around how growth at any cost is ultimately self-defeating.

 

2. Generative AI generates the noise

The talkable side of AI - Generative AI and General AI – is going to continue to dominate the conversation. But the real revolution will be quieter, duller, and (even) more useful – things like more efficient supermarket deliveries, and regulation.

But we’ll also see the unintended consequences of AI play out. A less useful internet as AI-generated SEO articles bloat websites, or the automation and mass production of everything from computer code to meeting notes devaluing that kind of work – and increasing (human) workloads.

So while we need to stay abreast of what’s happening, including developments away from the headlines, we shouldn’t feel the need to rush in. We should respect the human, and focus on what’s truly valuable.

 

3. Just the facts, ma’am.

Elections, social media and AI is a recipe for misinformation and outright disinformation. So we predict that we’ll see an explosion in independent fact checkers.

Open-source intelligence (OSINT) will flourish. And as the fastest fact wins the battle for clicks, media organisations will need to upweight their own resources (and legal teams) to keep ahead of independent sources, or else double down on authoritative, post hoc analysis.

Any organisation with a platform will have their own role to play in calling out and correcting falsehoods.

 

4. Collabs with a reason  

Seven years ago, Louis Vuitton and Supreme together produced an era-defining range. Alas, the tide is turning on that model – two incongruous brands collaborating on a limited drop, just because.  

We think 2024 will be the year brands – and consumers – want more from the collab model. Aside from it being so well-worn, there are some problematic aspects: luxury brands often co-opting working class culture, and the turbo-charged, FOMO-driven consumerism of drops.  

To stay relevant, brands are going to have to work harder – creating something with a genuine reason to be in their audience’s lives. Or get weird, irreverent and meta, and embrace the idea of clothing as a wearable meme. 

 

5. Black, white and dead all over?

The situation for editorial looks dire, again – continued falls in readership and income leading to cuts, consolidation of ownership, and closures.

But we say editorial titles will evolve into a mixture of lifestyle brand and think tank. The value of direct readership will be usurped by a sense of broader cultural influence. Pay walls, subscription models, podcasts and print-only models will continue to become more common, as ways to make ends meet, but we’ll also recognise the value in the unique authority, influence and audience that editorial, of every kind, has.

Direct audiences may be getting smaller, but targeting a more specific audience, united by shared values, is an effective way to get an audience to truly engage with what you have to say.

 

And finally: Expect the unexpected

For all the confident predictions for 2024, it’s certain that what will actually shape the year is something that, right now, seems not merely unlikely but actually impossible.

War in Gaza. War in Ukraine. Exploding cost of living. Oil spikes. Recession. A pandemic. None of these were among anyone’s predictions in recent years. The world is too messy, complex, irrational and interdependent to make neat predictions for 12 days ahead, let alone 12 months.

So whatever we plan, we need to be prepared to re-plan and react with agility and humanity.